Legislators going rouge đ« Governors threatening secession đ„ Senators acting as Presidents đ Are only cartel king pins willing to tango? đ
The parallels between Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum's difficulties in navigating divided legislatures, rebellious governors, sidelined popular leaders, and internal party power struggles is staggering. Cartel dynamics in both Mexico and the USA also reveal a lot!
Donald Trump can't get a smile out of Jerome Powell, democrats to stop calling him dictator or Republicans to avoid having conflicting interests in legislative initiatives! Lets check out the nasty details:
Donald Trump can't get a smile out of Jerome Powell, democrats to stop calling him dictator or Republicans to avoid having conflicting interests in legislative initiatives! Lets check out the nasty details:
Rouge Chambers
In the United States, Congress remains frustratingly unproductive even under unified Republican control. The 118th Congress (2023â24) passed barely 150 bills in two years â about one-third the output of the prior session đ â and analysts warn that narrow party majorities in 2025 make a gridlock likely despite a GOP âtrifectaâ: having control over congress, senate and presidency. Â
In practice, Republicans are already split. Key moderates have openly bucked Trumpâs budget agenda: for example, GOP lawmakers from swing districts refused to back deep Medicaid cuts in Trumpâs spending plan. Even conservative Senate leaders have diverged from the president on foreign affairs, warning against any naĂŻve deal that could help Russia in Ukraine.Â
These fissures echo in Mexico. President Sheinbaumâs Morena party holds a supermajority, and early in her term Congress rapidly approved major constitutional reforms â âhalf of the reforms enacted during the entire term of LĂłpez Obradorâ in just three months. Yet cracks are showing. Longtime Morena veterans have clashed with party newcomers. Senator Ricardo Monrealâs faction even allied with opposition forces in local Mexico City elections. Morena deputy Susana Prieto, who championed a 40-hour workweek law, quit the party in late 2024 after complaining that leaders refused to support her labor reform. Opposition legislators also regularly oppose presidential initiatives: for instance PAN and PRI senators derailed AMLO-era judicial reforms, and Morena insiders like Monreal have alternately delayed or amended Sheinbaumâs proposals to protect interests.
In both capitals, only hard compromises or brinksmanship have kept the chambers open, with multiple examples of legislators openly defying their own party leadership.Â
Stubborn Governors
Governors in both countries have openly defied federal agendas. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has positioned himself as a counterweight to Washington. Last spring he sued to block President Trumpâs broad new tariffs â arguing Trump has no constitutional âauthority to unilaterally enactâ import taxes that he says hurt Californians. Newsom has also pushed ahead with state policies at odds with federal aims, from expanding health coverage to undocumented immigrants (despite GOP calls to cut off funding) to imposing aggressive climate and worker protections beyond Washingtonâs rollback. As one California official framed it, federal trade and fiscal moves by Trump have inflicted a â\$16Bâ hit on state revenue â the âTrump slumpâ highlighted on Newsomâs budget charts.Â
Governors in both countries have openly defied federal agendas. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has positioned himself as a counterweight to Washington. Last spring he sued to block President Trumpâs broad new tariffs â arguing Trump has no constitutional âauthority to unilaterally enactâ import taxes that he says hurt Californians. Newsom has also pushed ahead with state policies at odds with federal aims, from expanding health coverage to undocumented immigrants (despite GOP calls to cut off funding) to imposing aggressive climate and worker protections beyond Washingtonâs rollback. As one California official framed it, federal trade and fiscal moves by Trump have inflicted a â\$16Bâ hit on state revenue â the âTrump slumpâ highlighted on Newsomâs budget charts.Â
Meanwhile, several Mexican governors have run quasi-independent or even cartel-tolerant fiefdoms. A Texas think-tank has bluntly noted that âbehind every Morena victoryâ in states looms the Sinaloa Cartel, and press accounts confirm that several Morena governors are under suspicion of narco-collusion. For example, Sinaloaâs governor, RubĂ©n Rocha (Morena), has long been accused (without proof) of aligning with the âChapitosâ faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, and neighboring Tamaulipas Governor AmĂ©rico Villarreal (Morena) has faced similar whispers of protecting Gulf Cartel figures.
In northern Nuevo LeĂłn, conservative ex-governor Jaime âEl Broncoâ RodrĂguez CalderĂłn had floated secessionist notions and later fell from grace amid corruption probes â reflecting lingering northâcenter tensions. The idea of breaking away gains sympathy in both places, albeit mostly as talk: one poll found over 60% of Californians believe their state would be better off âif California peacefully secededâ within a decade. In Mexico, historians note that Nuevo LeĂłn (with Coahuila and Tamaulipas) once rebelled against centralization in 1840 as the short-lived Republic of the RĂo Grande.Â
Today, occasional murmurs of independence still surface in California and Nuevo LeĂłnâs local politics, a reminder of persistent regional pride even as outright secession remains highly unlikely. These two states are key economic hubs in both countries.Â
Fallout of Popular Leaders
Grassroots leaders in both countries have found themselves sidelined. In the U.S., 25-year-old gun-control activist David Hogg â now a DNC vice-chair â has openly clashed with party bosses. After he vowed to spend millions to primary âout-of-touchâ Democratic incumbents, DNC Chair Ken Martin rebuked him: "as he put it, Hogg cannot serve as a party officer and campaign against fellow Democrats". Indeed, a DNC panel even voided Hoggâs vice-chair election, citing procedural pretexts after he warned the party was âasleep at the wheelâ.Â
Other progressive voices face similar pushback: activists who challenged party positions on Gaza or Ukraine have been quietly shunned or framed as divisive. For instance, critics of Israelâs Gaza policy within the party have found themselves starved of leadership roles, and outspoken anti-war Democratic women have incurred establishment censure. Â
In Mexico, Sheinbaumâs Morena has likewise dropped or alienated prominent reformers. Labor leader and deputy Susana Prieto resigned after claiming Morena reneged on promises and refused to support her 40âhour workweek bill. She even accused her own blocâs coordinator of gendered âpolitical violenceâ during the fallout. Analysts point to at least two other Morena or allied activists in recent months â local labor or environmental organizers â who were similarly frozen out after airing reforms unapproved by party elites. Footage of the congresswoman storming out of office while her chambers plate was being removed, have surfaced online.Â
These ousters underline a common theme: in both countries, young, popular or activist figures who step out of line with the establishment risk being forced from power.
Senators and Congress Acting Like Presidents
In polarized Washington, legislative leaders often command de facto executive clout. Even out of formal office, Nancy Pelosi looms large in U.S. politics. She famously warned fellow Democrats to speak for themselves and even fundraised with the quip âIâm out to get youâ aimed at Republicans. Behind the scenes, Pelosi has counseled the democratic campaigns on strategic concessions and shaped messaging priorities. Likewise, House Speake Mike Johnson (R-La.) sets policy as if co-president: he met directly with Trump advisers and declared the House was âon targetâ to pass Trumpâs tax plan by Memorial Day. He also has led on foreign policy: in a July 2024 speech, Johnson unveiled a series of bills targeting China and admonished NATO allies on defense spending, effectively using his House platform to declare national-security priorities. Senate leaders join the fray too: as Reuters observes, Johnson âsets the legislative agendaâ in the U.S. House and ensures only compliant bills reach the floor.
In Mexico, congressional bosses play a similar role. Senator Ricardo Monreal has become a kingmaker by leveraging both his position as Senate Majority Leader and his clanâs influence in Zacatecas. As news reports, Monrealâs family is deeply woven into the state: his brother David Monreal governs Zacatecas, and their nephew was murdered there in 2024, underscoring how political and cartel networks often intersect. With this backing, Ricardo Monreal has negotiated sweeping reforms and appointments on his terms â at times aligning even with opposition senators to block or modify the presidentâs proposals. In short, Monreal has acted as an extra layer of power atop the executive, wielding legislative muscle that rivals the presidency.
Are Only Cartel Kingpins Willing to Tango?
The recent drama of El Chapoâs family underscores the trust deficit between Mexico and the U.S. In mid-May 2025, news broke that 17 relatives of JoaquĂn âEl Chapoâ GuzmĂĄn voluntarily crossed into the United States as part of a plea-bargaining deal for GuzmĂĄnâs son, Ovidio, who is facing U.S. charges. Mexican officials confirmed that the family members entered U.S. custody under a ânegotiationâ framework. This unprecedented episode â of gang overlords effectively dealing directly with U.S. prosecutors â has rattled diplomatic norms. President Sheinbaum publicly condemned the U.S. move as âunilateralâ and cautioned that the terrorist designation of cartels âshould not be used by the United States as an opportunity to invade our sovereigntyâ. Sheinbaum even sent Congress a constitutional amendment to formally ban foreign military interventions.Â
Critics in Mexico see the surrender as a symptom of collapsed institutions: when only cartel families are brokering deals across the Rio Grande, it betrays a breakdown of bilateral trust. Some observers argue it reflects U.S. impatience with Mexican justice and Mexicoâs frustration with U.S. gun policy (Sheinbaum has linked cartel violence to illegal guns crossing the border). In any case, the spectacle of narco kingpins negotiating directly with Washington offers a vivid symbol of how both governments feel stranded: unable to fully control the cross-border drug war, their cooperation has frayed into a tangle of unilateral actions and secondhand deals.Â
Both Sheinbaum and Trump are politically isolated, at odds within them, with their partners and even with their own legislative branches â it increasingly seems only cartel kingpins are "willing to tangoâ as renegade bureaucrats seem unwilling to legislate.
Sources
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